How to make a business decision with incomplete information

Most online coaches make business decisions the same way a contestant freezes under studio lights: gut instinct, rising panic, and a vague hope it works out.

Here's a better approach. And yes, it comes from a 90s game show.

The Framework

Who Wants To Be A Millionaire gave contestants three lifelines when they genuinely didn't know the answer:

• Phone a Friend
• 50/50
• Ask the Audience

Those three lifelines map directly onto the decisions you face when building and growing an online coaching business.

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Lifeline 1: Phone a Friend = Hire a Coach

Not a supportive friend who tells you your ideas are great. Not someone who's been "thinking about starting something" for three years.

A phone-a-friend is someone who has specifically done what you're trying to do. The key detail from the show? You pick your phone-a-friend in advance. You don't scramble for a number when you're already on the spot.

The business equivalent: identify your mentor, advisor, or coach before you hit a wall. Have that resource ready.

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Lifeline 2: 50/50 = Ruthlessly Narrow Your Options

This lifeline is about minimising the number of decisions you have to make in the first place.

One offer. One funnel. As few variables as possible.

This isn't about playing small. It's about bandwidth and data quality. Unless you're operating at Amazon scale, you don't have the traffic volume to generate meaningful insights from running multiple products or funnels simultaneously.

The fewer variables you're testing, the faster and cleaner your feedback loop becomes. He who has the most useful data wins.

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Lifeline 3: Ask the Audience = Validate With Real Buyers

This is the one most coaches skip entirely.

Before you build a new programme, run a new ad, or launch a new product - get feedback from the people who are actually going to buy it. Not your peers. Not other coaches. Your target client.

At Propane, we made this mistake repeatedly in the early days. We built things we were genuinely proud of. Content that was detailed, accurate, and impressive. And it landed brilliantly... with other personal trainers. Because we were the only people who cared that deeply about the fractional synthetic rate of leucine.

Your audience doesn't want what impresses your industry peers. They want the thing that solves their specific problem. The only way to know what that is, is to ask them.

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Putting It Together

Before your next major business decision, run it through the three lifelines:

1. Do I have the right person I can go to for advice on this?
2. Have I cut this down to the fewest possible variables?
3. Have I validated this with real potential buyers - not just my own assumptions?

It won't eliminate uncertainty. Nothing does. But it will get you to a better answer, faster, with fewer expensive mistakes along the way.

Chris Tarrant figured this out. Now you have too.

Related guide: How to connect marketing, sales and delivery in a coaching business.